2026-05-29 08:55
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After spending this week reviewing the Iranian war I am now convinced President Trump is on the edge of an historic victory. The real breakthrough for me came as I reviewed President Trump’s decisions and maneuvers not from the standpoint of American unilateralism but from the standpoint of the leader of a remarkable historic coalition, the largest coalition ever put together in the modern Middle East. Everyone understands that Israel is an important ally. What is little discussed is the depth of support from the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region. It has to be sobering for the Iranian dictatorship to realize that it does not have a single ally willing to challenge the American naval blockade. Slowly, gradually, timidly, our European allies are lining up to help with the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. A great deal of President Trump’s maneuvers against Iran make sense once he is seen as a coalition leader and not just as a unilateral American President. I spent a lot of the last couple weeks reviewing kinetic options including wining the battle of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz and if necessary using the shocking and shattering level of force President Nixon and Secretary Kissinger used against Hanoi and Haiphong in Christmas 1972 (which both leaders believed convinced the North Vietnamese to agree to a truce and the freeing of American POWs). If this were a unilateral American campaign I could enthusiastically support a more aggressive kinetic campaign. However it is also clear it would shatter the coalition because our Arab allies are convinced Iran could still do enormous damage to their oil fields and infrastructure. Coalitions are inherently slower than unilateral campaigns. However coalitions ultimately bring vastly more power to the fight. I am as frustrated as everyone else by the pace of talking with the dictatorship but having reviewed the correlation of forces and the options available to the coalition on one side and the Iranian religiously motivated dictatorship on the other I am prepared to assert that President Trump’s coalition leadership (something almost none of his critics want to acknowledge) is within reach of an enormous historic victory. And if the Iranian dictatorship ultimately proves it is hopelessly committed to a suicidal position there will be plenty of time for a kinetic campaign of enormous power and effectiveness. Either way we are on the edge of an astonishing victory for our values and for a safer Middle East.
🇨🇳 中文翻译
经过这周回顾伊朗战争，我现在确信特朗普总统正处于一个历史性胜利的边缘。真正的突破来自于我重新审视特朗普总统的决策和策略，不是从美国单边主义的角度，而是从一个非凡历史联盟的领导者的角度，这是现代中东地区有史以来最大的联盟。每个人都明白以色列是一个重要的盟友。但很少有人讨论到来自阿拉伯联合酋长国、卡塔尔、巴林、沙特阿拉伯以及其他地区国家的支持深度。伊朗独裁政权必须意识到，它没有愿意挑战美国海军封锁的盟友，这必须令其感到清醒。慢慢地、逐渐地、胆怯地，我们的欧洲盟友开始排队帮助波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡。一旦将特朗普总统视为联盟领袖而不仅仅是单边美国总统，他对伊朗的许多策略就变得有意义。在过去几周里，我花了很多时间回顾动能选项，包括赢得波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡的战斗，如果必要的话，使用尼克松总统和基辛格国务卿在1972年圣诞节对河内和海防使用的令人震惊和破坏性的武力水平（两位领导人都相信这促使北越同意停战并释放美国战俘）。如果这是一场单边美国行动，我可以热情支持更加积极的动能行动。然而，也很明显，这会破坏联盟，因为我们的阿拉伯盟友确信伊朗仍然可以对他们的油田和基础设施造成巨大损害。联盟本质上比单边行动慢。然而，联盟最终为战斗带来了更大的力量。我对与独裁政权对话的速度感到沮丧，就像其他人一样，但在回顾了联盟可用的力量对比和选项，以及伊朗宗教驱动的独裁政权，我准备断言特朗普总统的联盟领导（他的批评者几乎无人愿意承认）即将实现一个巨大的历史性胜利。如果伊朗独裁政权最终证明它无可救药地致力于自杀性立场，那么将有足够的时间进行一场强大有效的动能行动。无论如何，我们都处于为我们的价值观和更安全的中东地区取得惊人胜利的边缘。
1. 核心观点
特朗普通过帖文表达了对伊朗的强硬立场，并暗示美国不是单独行动，而是作为中东地区一个前所未有的大型联盟的领导者。他认为这个联盟对伊朗构成了巨大压力，并且暗示如果伊朗不改变立场，可能会采取更激进的军事行动。
2....
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