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原始帖文 · Truth Social
RT @NewtGingrichAfter spending this week reviewing the Iranian war I am now convinced President Trump is on the edge of an historic victory. The real breakthrough for me came as I reviewed President Trump’s decisions and maneuvers not from the standpoint of American unilateralism but from the standpoint of the leader of a remarkable historic coalition, the largest coalition ever put together in the modern Middle East. Everyone understands that Israel is an important ally. What is little discussed is the depth of support from the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region. It has to be sobering for the Iranian dictatorship to realize that it does not have a single ally willing to challenge the American naval blockade. Slowly, gradually, timidly, our European allies are lining up to help with the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. A great deal of President Trump’s maneuvers against Iran make sense once he is seen as a coalition leader and not just as a unilateral American President. I spent a lot of the last couple weeks reviewing kinetic options including wining the battle of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz and if necessary using the shocking and shattering level of force President Nixon and Secretary Kissinger used against Hanoi and Haiphong in Christmas 1972 (which both leaders believed convinced the North Vietnamese to agree to a truce and the freeing of American POWs). If this were a unilateral American campaign I could enthusiastically support a more aggressive kinetic campaign. However it is also clear it would shatter the coalition because our Arab allies are convinced Iran could still do enormous damage to their oil fields and infrastructure. Coalitions are inherently slower than unilateral campaigns. However coalitions ultimately bring vastly more power to the fight. I am as frustrated as everyone else by the pace of talking with the dictatorship but having reviewed the correlation of forces and the options available to the coalition on one side and the Iranian religiously motivated dictatorship on the other I am prepared to assert that President Trump’s coalition leadership (something almost none of his critics want to acknowledge) is within reach of an enormous historic victory. And if the Iranian dictatorship ultimately proves it is hopelessly committed to a suicidal position there will be plenty of time for a kinetic campaign of enormous power and effectiveness. Either way we are on the edge of an astonishing victory for our values and for a safer Middle East.
🇨🇳 中文翻译
转推 @NewtGingrich 在这周回顾了伊朗战争后,我确信特朗普总统正处于一个历史性胜利的边缘。对我来说,真正的突破来自于我回顾特朗普总统的决定和策略,不是从美国单边主义的角度,而是从一个非凡历史联盟的领导者的角度,这是现代中东地区组建的最大的联盟。每个人都明白以色列是一个重要的盟友。鲜少讨论的是来自阿拉伯联合酋长国、卡塔尔、巴林、沙特阿拉伯和该地区其他国家的深度支持。对于伊朗独裁政权来说,意识到它没有一个愿意挑战美国海军封锁的盟友,这必定是一个清醒的认识。慢慢地、逐渐地、胆怯地,我们的欧洲盟友也开始帮助波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡。一旦将特朗普总统视为联盟领导者而不仅仅是一个单边的美国总统,他对伊朗的许多策略就变得合理了。在过去几周,我花了很多时间回顾了动态选项,包括赢得波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡的战斗,如果必要的话,使用尼克松总统和基辛格国务卿在1972年圣诞节对河内和海防使用的令人震惊和破坏性的武力水平(两位领导人都相信这说服了北越同意停战和释放美国战俘)。如果这是一场单边的美国战役,我可以热情支持一个更积极的动态战役。然而,也很清楚这会破坏联盟,因为我们的阿拉伯盟友相信伊朗仍然可以对他们的油田和基础设施造成巨大的损害。联盟本质上比单边战役慢。然而,联盟最终为战斗带来了更多的力量。我对与独裁政权的谈话速度感到和每个人一样沮丧,但在回顾了力量对比和联盟一方可用的选项,以及伊朗宗教驱动的独裁政权另一方后,我准备断言,特朗普总统的联盟领导(几乎没有他的批评者愿意承认)即将实现一个巨大的历史性胜利。如果伊朗独裁政权最终证明它无可救药地致力于一个自杀性的立场,那么将有足够的时间进行一个强大而有效的动态战役。无论如何,我们都处于为我们的价值观和更安全的中东取得惊人胜利的边缘。

🤖 AI 金融市场深度解读

👁️ 本文阅读量 --

1. 核心观点
特朗普通过构建历史性联盟对抗伊朗,可能接近历史性胜利。该联盟包括以色列、阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林、沙特阿拉伯等中东国家,没有国家愿意挑战美国的海上封锁。

2. 美股影响(标普500 / 纳斯达克 / 道指)
看涨。帖文中提到的联盟对抗伊朗,暗示中东地区紧张局势可能得到缓解,这可能增强市场对全球经济稳定的信心,从而提振股市。

3. 石油影响(WTI / 布伦特)
中性。虽然帖文提到了对伊朗的海上封锁,但同时也提到了欧洲盟友的逐渐支持和联盟的缓慢行动,这意味着短期内石油供应可能不会受到太大影响,市场对石油价格的反应可能保持中性。

4. 黄金影响
看跌。帖文传达的是一种通过联盟和外交手段解决问题的态度,减少了对军事冲突的预期,这可能会减少市场对避险资产黄金的需求。

5. TACO 判断 ⭐
B. TACO 退缩期:软化/撤回威胁,市场可能反弹。帖文中特朗普被视为联盟领导者,而不是单边行动的美国总统,这表明特朗普可能在采取更合作和外交的手段来解决问题,而不是单边的军事行动,这可能减少市场对冲突的担忧。

6. 关联资产
- 个股代码:埃克森美孚(XOM)、雪佛龙(CVX)等石油公司可能受益于中东局势的稳定。
- ETF:SPY(标普500 ETF)和QQQ(纳斯达克100 ETF)可能因市场信心增强而上涨。
- 期货合约:WTI原油和布伦特原油期货可能因供应稳定而价格波动不大。
- 货币对:美元/欧元(USD/EUR)可能因市场对美国领导力的信心增强而走强。

7. 历史参考
历史上,类似的外交胜利或减少军事冲突的言论通常会导致市场情绪的改善和股市的上涨。例如,2018年特朗普与朝鲜领导人金正恩的峰会期间,市场对地缘政治风险的担忧减少,股市普遍上涨。