← 返回首页
原始帖文 · Truth Social
RT @NewtGingrichAfter spending this week reviewing the Iranian war I am now convinced President Trump is on the edge of an historic victory. The real breakthrough for me came as I reviewed President Trump’s decisions and maneuvers not from the standpoint of American unilateralism but from the standpoint of the leader of a remarkable historic coalition, the largest coalition ever put together in the modern Middle East. Everyone understands that Israel is an important ally. What is little discussed is the depth of support from the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region. It has to be sobering for the Iranian dictatorship to realize that it does not have a single ally willing to challenge the American naval blockade. Slowly, gradually, timidly, our European allies are lining up to help with the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. A great deal of President Trump’s maneuvers against Iran make sense once he is seen as a coalition leader and not just as a unilateral American President. I spent a lot of the last couple weeks reviewing kinetic options including wining the battle of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz and if necessary using the shocking and shattering level of force President Nixon and Secretary Kissinger used against Hanoi and Haiphong in Christmas 1972 (which both leaders believed convinced the North Vietnamese to agree to a truce and the freeing of American POWs). If this were a unilateral American campaign I could enthusiastically support a more aggressive kinetic campaign. However it is also clear it would shatter the coalition because our Arab allies are convinced Iran could still do enormous damage to their oil fields and infrastructure. Coalitions are inherently slower than unilateral campaigns. However coalitions ultimately bring vastly more power to the fight. I am as frustrated as everyone else by the pace of talking with the dictatorship but having reviewed the correlation of forces and the options available to the coalition on one side and the Iranian religiously motivated dictatorship on the other I am prepared to assert that President Trump’s coalition leadership (something almost none of his critics want to acknowledge) is within reach of an enormous historic victory. And if the Iranian dictatorship ultimately proves it is hopelessly committed to a suicidal position there will be plenty of time for a kinetic campaign of enormous power and effectiveness. Either way we are on the edge of an astonishing victory for our values and for a safer Middle East.
🇨🇳 中文翻译
转发@NewtGingrich 在这周回顾伊朗战争后,我确信特朗普总统正处在一个历史性胜利的边缘。真正的突破来自于我审视特朗普总统的决策和策略时,不是从美国单边主义的角度,而是从一个非凡历史联盟的领导者的角度来看,这是现代中东地区组建的最大联盟。每个人都明白以色列是一个重要的盟友。鲜少讨论的是来自阿拉伯联合酋长国、卡塔尔、巴林、沙特阿拉伯以及其他地区国家的支持深度。对于伊朗独裁政权来说,意识到它没有一个愿意挑战美国海军封锁的盟友,这必定是一个令人清醒的认识。慢慢地、逐渐地、胆怯地,我们的欧洲盟友正在排队帮助波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡。一旦将特朗普总统视为联盟领导者而不仅仅是一个单边的美国总统,他对抗伊朗的许多策略就变得有意义了。在过去几周我花了很多时间回顾动态选项,包括赢得波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡的战斗,如果必要的话,使用尼克松总统和基辛格国务卿在1972年圣诞节对河内和海防使用的惊人和震撼的力量水平(两位领导人都相信这说服了北越同意停战并释放美国战俘)。如果这是一场单边的美国行动,我可以热情支持一个更激进的动态行动。然而,也很明显,这会破坏联盟,因为我们的阿拉伯盟友相信伊朗仍然可以对他们的油田和基础设施造成巨大破坏。联盟本质上比单边行动慢。然而,联盟最终为战斗带来了更多的力量。我和其他人一样对与独裁政权的谈话速度感到沮丧,但在审视了联盟一边的力量对比和可用选项,以及另一边的伊朗宗教驱动的独裁政权后,我准备断言特朗普总统的联盟领导(他的批评者几乎无人愿意承认)即将取得巨大的历史性胜利。如果伊朗独裁政权最终证明它无可救药地致力于一个自杀性的立场,那么将有足够的时间为一场强大而有效的动态行动做准备。无论如何,我们都处在为我们的价值观和更安全的中东赢得惊人胜利的边缘。

🤖 AI 金融市场深度解读

👁️ 本文阅读量 --

1. 核心观点
特朗普通过构建中东历史上最大的联盟,正接近取得对伊朗的历史性胜利。这一联盟包括以色列、阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林、沙特阿拉伯等国家,对伊朗形成压力,且欧洲盟友也在逐步加入支持。

2. 美股影响(标普500 / 纳斯达克 / 道指)
看涨。帖文中提到的中东联盟对伊朗的压力增强,可能会减少中东地区的不确定性和紧张局势,从而提振市场信心。此外,如果伊朗问题得到和平解决,全球能源供应的稳定性将增加,对股市构成正面影响。

3. 石油影响(WTI / 布伦特)
中性。虽然中东地区的紧张局势可能减少,但帖文中也提到了伊朗可能对阿拉伯国家油田和基础设施造成的损害,这可能会对石油供应造成影响,因此油价可能会因地缘政治风险的不确定性而波动。

4. 黄金影响
看跌。帖文显示中东局势可能向和平方向发展,减少了市场对避险资产的需求,因此黄金价格可能会受到压力。

5. TACO 判断 ⭐
B. TACO 退缩期:软化/撤回威胁,市场可能反弹。帖文中特朗普被视为联盟领导者而非单边行动者,这表明他可能不会采取过于激进的行动,而是通过联盟来解决问题,这与之前的强硬立场相比有所软化。

6. 关联资产
- 个股代码:埃克森美孚(XOM)、雪佛龙(CVX)等能源公司可能会受益于中东局势的稳定。
- ETF:SPY(标普500 ETF)、QQQ(纳斯达克100 ETF)可能会因股市上涨而受益。
- 期货合约:WTI原油和布伦特原油合约可能会因中东局势的不确定性减少而波动。
- 货币对:美元/里亚尔(USD/IRR)可能会因伊朗经济压力增大而波动。

7. 历史参考
历史上,中东地区的紧张局势往往会导致油价和黄金价格的上涨,而股市则可能因不确定性增加而下跌。然而,如果紧张局势得到缓解,市场往往会反弹。例如,2015年伊朗核协议达成后,油价下跌,股市上涨,黄金价格也有所回落。